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The position is certainly critical; with any other people than those of Anglo-Saxon race, it might be desperate: a few months more delay, and the wool shearing will be lost; for the flocks, no longer watched, will have strayed away, and possibly will have perished. It was the work of a quarter of a century to have accumulated the capital employed in Agriculture in Australia; without an immense immigration, not of gold seekers, but of shepherds, and persons accustomed to a pastoral life, before the end of 1852 all this capital will be inevitably destroyed. England has awakened rather late to the danger, but she has now to work in good earnest to apply the remedy. The Governor of Australia witnessed the daily arrivals of emigrants with alarm, so long as they added only to the crowds of miners, and who by their competition still further increased the price of provisions; he even pressed the Colonial Secretary to try and turn the stream of emigration to other colonies. But independent of Government emigration, voluntary associations for the same object have not been inactive. Liverpool alone has been shipping at the rate of 2,000 a month for Sydney or Melbourne. Ships are wanting in all the ports of Great Britain and Ireland, for the transport of emigrants. Shipbuilding yards are all in the greatest state of active employment.

Nor has this want of an agricultural population in Australia been overlooked. The islands to the north and west and the Highlands of Scotland, contain a population far too numerous for their means of adequate support, so that in spite of hard and constant work, there is frequent mortality from famine in this poor and barren country. Twenty or thirty thousand of these labourers, engaged for agricultural occupations in Van Dieman’s Land, and for sheep tending in New South Wales, would cease to be a burthen on English charity, and would avert the ruin of Australia. Subscription lists are opened in England for this object, and the colony itself is in a position to lend its aid, as Sir John Packington informed Sir G. Fitzroy that the government would place at the disposal of the local legislature the revenues which might accrue from the workings of these gold regions. At this time the port of London contains a fleet of vessels ready to sail for Australia, capable of conveying 23,000 persons and 30,000 tons of merchandize. It is clear, that by abandoning all the rights of the Crown to the treasures of the “placers,” the British Government has saved Australia. By this arrangement, the Colonial revenues have been almost doubled; 30s. a month levied on 60,000 miners, working eight months in the year, would produce ¹²⁰18,000,000 francs. A tax of 60s. which was attempted to be established, but which the miners resisted, might have produced ¹²¹36,000,000 francs. In default of English labourers, the expenses of whose voyage must necessarily be great, and whose willingness to work could not be depended on, there would be funds enough to import a whole population of Indians or Chinese.

The production of these gold regions in Australia does not appear to have exceeded £1,500,000 sterling in 1851, from all the “placers” then worked; but we know that the working in the province of Sydney did not begin until the middle of May; and in Victoria, not until the end of September. In January, 1852, they reckoned 10,000 miners in the Sydney gold districts, the produce of which oscillated between 12,000 and 15,000 ounces per week. For eight month’s work this would give about ¹²²31,000,000 francs at the Colonial price, and ¹²³35,000,000 at the English price of gold; but the population will certainly have increased in 1852, and it will be a moderate calculation to estimate the produce of this province at ¹²⁴40,000,000 to 50,000,000 francs during this year.

In the province of Victoria, 30,000 miners were at work at the “placers,” at the end of December; and the number was daily increasing. They probably would have received, by the spring of this year, a reinforcement of 10,000. Mineral working is a lottery, in which very few gain the great prizes. A letter from Sydney, dated 4th February, thus sums up the result of the work, and of its uncertainty and irregularity. “They calculate, that out of every ten speculators who hire workmen for the gold-washings, only one repays his expenses, and of those who work on their own account, the proportion who are successful is about one in five.” It is not to be expected, then, that the quantity of gold collected by so many miners should equal the brilliant, the extraordinary, profits made by many of the first adventurers. It is a liberal calculation to suppose that the 40,000 miners of the province of Victoria might obtain on an average 10s. or 12s. each for their daily work. At 200 days’ work this could give about ¹²⁵3,000 francs each, or about 120,000,000 francs per annum. Thus, these two provinces would yield a produce in 1852, of ¹²⁶40,000,000 for Sydney, and ¹²⁷120,000,000 for Victoria, together about ¹²⁸160,000,000 francs.

In following the scale of progress of California, these results might be doubled the third year: but it should be remarked, that up to March last, notwithstanding the immense increase of the workings carried on for nearly a year in Sydney, and for six months in Australia-Felix, the colony had not shipped, of all the gold it had collected, above £819,000 sterling (20,537,000 francs) to England.

Uniting the products of the three great gold regions, we find that Siberia, California, and Australia, are expected to supply in 1852, about ¹²⁹600,000,000 francs: a mass of gold equal to about 175 tons in weight. It should be borne in mind, that China and Japan have also their mines of gold and silver in full work; the produce of which does not appear, however, to leave those countries. The Chain of the Himalaya possibly contains mineral wealth equal to that of the Cordilleras, the dorsal division of South America, from Chili to Oregon. It is also said, that the inhabitants of Thibet have begun to work their golden alluvial deposits. All the mines in the world, therefore, are not yet fully worked; and there will, probably, be an ample supply for some generations to come. The gold supplied by America, independently of California, can hardly be estimated at above ¹³⁰8,000 kilogrammes per annum. Hungary is the only country in Europe, excepting Russia, which is producing about ¹³¹2,000 kilogrammes of gold. The quantity from Africa is very small; and ¹³²3,000 or 4,000 kilogrammes is the whole of the known produce of the washings in the Straits of Sunda, and in the peninsula of Malacca. From all which sources united, an approximative value may be fixed at from ¹³³40,000,000 to 50,000,000 francs. To sum up the whole, then, it would appear that the gold production of 1852 may be estimated at —

It has been already stated, that California produced ¹³⁴750,000,000 francs during the four years 1848 to 1851. Russia, during the same period, at the rate of ¹³⁵100,000,000 fr., will have produced ¹³⁶400,000,000, and the other gold districts ¹³⁷200,000,000. Thus, in the five years ending with 1852, the total production including Australia, will probably amount to nearly ¹³⁸two milliards of francs: a result unexampled in history; gold has never previously flowed from such numerous channels, and from such abundant sources.

VI

What will be the effects produced by this expansion of gold on those countries where the discoveries and working have occurred, and on the great centres of wealth and industry, where competition is in active operation, and where the gold may, when in the shape of coin, fix a new value on commodities? First, as regards the gold-producing countries themselves. It is clear that the attraction to the “diggings” must retard, if not put a temporary stop, to really productive labour, that of the cultivation of the land: but this demoralizing influence may not be of long duration. The “placers” will become exhausted, the gold of alluvial deposit, that which the rains and other causes have spread over the surface of the soil, has hitherto been the chief feeder of the supply. The thousands of miners working at the various sources, and turning over and over again every part of the surface, will soon have picked out every particle of the metal. The remainder of the gold must then be sought for in the quartz; whence it can be obtained only by the aid of scientific processes, and effectually extracted only by the application of capital: which is hardly likely to be supplied to an adequate extent, excepting by companies, in the same way as has been the case in the working of silver mines. Then individual enterprize will be again directed to the cultivation of the soil. Out of the crowds of emigrants in Australia and California, now attracted to the “diggings,” the number required for agricultural purposes will no longer be deficient. Amongst the adventurers who are expatriating themselves to seek fortunes in new countries, there will be numbers of poor families who will consider themselves adequately repaid by being able to obtain in a distant land, a fair remuneration for their services, and the ownership of land, with the means of a comfortable livelihood.

The Spaniards, in the early days of conquest in South America, began by abandoning all other pursuits than the search of gold and silver; they ended however, by building cities, forming harbours, constructing churches, planting the land, and rearing flocks. After the soldiers came the miners, after the miners came the colonists: swords were turned into plough-shares. That which occurred in the 17th century will recur in the 19th. Australia, California, and the colder regions of the Altai, will be covered with people. It may readily be believed that Providence, in the accumulation of treasures like loadstones in the hearts of the mountains and in the depths of the valleys, has contemplated the attraction of a superabundant population, and of the genius of colonization throughout the civilized world.

Thus much for the producing country itself. Let us now consider the effect of this superabundance of gold on the importing countries. The first and most important question is, whether the relative proportions in value between gold and silver is likely to be materially disturbed. We have been considering the present production of gold, let us now see how the case stands as regards silver.

Mons. de Humboldt estimates the amount of silver annually produced at the commencement of this century at 870,000 kilogrammes (about ¹³⁹193,000,000 francs). In 1847, M. Michel Chevalier, considered the annual production to be 775,000 kilogrammes, (about ¹⁴⁰172,000,000 francs), but there is reason to suppose that this writer under-estimated the returns of the Mexican mines, which he placed at ¹⁴¹18,500,000 piastres, and in a later work, the same authority states the production at ¹⁴²900,000 kilogrammes. The English paper, The Economist, estimated the return of 1850 at ¹⁴³191,772,000 francs; the actual production, however, appears to have been much larger. It cannot be placed at a lower figure than 1,000,000 of kilogrammes for 1851, or at about ¹⁴⁴230,000,000 francs. The following is the table of details:

We do not think we shall be exaggerating in supposing that the production will have reached ¹⁴⁵250,000,000 francs in 1852, and that it will consequently have exceeded ¹⁴⁶1,100,000 kilogrammes. At this rate the accumulated value of the precious metals produced in 1852 will have reached the figure of ¹⁴⁷850,000,000 fr., of which silver will represent the proportion of about 30 per cent; the weight of gold will then be in the proportion of 1 to 6³⁄₁₀ to silver.

In estimating a gradual increase in the production of silver, we have some data for our supposition. In 1843, there was scarcely ¹⁴⁸16,000,000 piastres from Mexico; in 1849, the silver coined at the Mexican Mint amounted to ¹⁴⁹20,000,000 dollars, without reckoning that portion which escaped duty, and which probably amounted to ¹⁵⁰3,000,000 or 4,000,000 more; ¹⁵¹we are certainly quite within the mark, it is even more probable that the production this year may again reach the sum of ¹⁵²27,000,000 dollars, to which it had attained in 1805, under the Spanish Government. In Chili the progress has been still more rapid, the mines which in 1841 produced ¹⁵³821,000 piastres, and in 1845, ¹⁵⁴1,534,000, having in 1849 given ¹⁵⁵3,343,000, and in 1850 ¹⁵⁶4,070,000 piastres.

One cause of a purely local nature has contributed to this result. It is known that the process of amalgamation is almost the only one employed by the miners in extracting the ores of Chili, Peru, and Mexico. To obtain 1 cwt. of silver it is necessary to employ 1½ cwt. of quicksilver; it is evident, therefore, that the price of quicksilver must have a great influence on the cost of extraction. When it has become too dear, the working has been confined to the richest mines; when it has fallen the increase in the working of the poorer ores has soon followed. Before the war of independence, the Crown of Spain, preserving the monopoly of the sale of quicksilver, gave it out at all their depots in Mexico at ¹⁵⁷35 to 40 piastres the cwt.; thence arose the immense increase in the workings of the silver mines, notwithstanding the coarseness of the ores. Since the Spanish Government, however, has, pressed by the miserable position of its finances, farmed out the produce of the Almaden mines, the lessees who had agreed to pay a very heavy rent, and who had no competition to fear for a long period of time, raised the price of the quicksilver beyond all bounds. A few years since the price at Guanaxuato rose to ¹⁵⁸150 piastres the cwt. In 1850 the agent of Messrs. Rothschild fixed the price at ¹⁵⁹103 piastres in Vera Cruz, and at ¹⁶⁰105 at the depot in Mexico. At the same date the price was ¹⁶¹120 at Mazatlan. The cost price of the quicksilver at Almaden is ¹⁶²18 dollars the cwt., and it is sold at the rate of ¹⁶³45 dollars for extraction of the ores in Spain.

The high price will cease with the monopoly. Spain has no longer the exclusive privilege of furnishing quicksilver for the mines in the New World. California possesses mines of cinnabar in abundance, and they are now in full work. Those of New-Almaden, situated at some leagues from San Francisco, are now producing ¹⁶⁴400 kilogrammes a day. At 300 day’s work this could give a provision of ¹⁶⁵120,000 kilogrammes, sufficient to work at least ¹⁶⁶80,000 kilogrammes of silver. At the mine itself this quicksilver is worth ¹⁶⁷25 piastres the cwt.; brought to Fresnillo, near the rich veins of Sombrerete, and on the backs of mules from the port of Mazatlan, it has been sold at ¹⁶⁸93 piastres in 1850. The proprietors of New-Almaden undertake to reduce the price whenever the price of Spanish quicksilver shall be lowered. They have sent some of it to Chili, where silver-mine working has taken a fresh start. They can sell it advantageously in Peru, for the quicksilver of Huancavelica cost at Pasco in August, 1850, ¹⁶⁹104 piastres the cwt. The mine of New Almaden is not the only one being worked in California; cinnabar is met with in several directions, and hereafter it is probable that California may be looked to as a country producing quicksilver as well as gold.

The news of the discovery of quicksilver mines in Mexico, in the neighbourhood of San Luis de Potosi, was confirmed by accounts received in London in March last. Are they old mines formerly abandoned on account of their poverty, or have they really discovered an ore which, as at New Almaden, yields a produce of 50 per cent. of quicksilver? This is a point yet to be cleared up. In the meantime the price of silver has fallen in the district of Guanaxuato to ¹⁷⁰40 piastres the hundred weight, and it is now varying between a price of ¹⁷¹55 and 56 piastres. In short, one of the conditions connected with silver mining has materially changed. An economy of ¹⁷²60 or 70 piastres per hundred weight in the cost of amalgamation can hardly fail to kindle a fresh spirit of enterprize.

Another cause will necessarily act on the production of silver, and that is the very abundance of gold. When silver is found to be more in demand, fresh activity will ensue, both in reopening old galleries, which have been closed as not sufficiently remunerative, and in pushing on the work in those actually in operation. If the mines, feeding the present supply, are becoming exhausted, and other sources are not forthcoming, in a few years silver will reach the price of gold, or the value of gold will descend to that of silver; but as the limits of silver working are but the price of labour, the power of machinery, and the application of science, so, every increase in the quantity of gold which is not caused by accidental circumstances, or by an extraordinary demand, must produce a corresponding increase in the production of silver. Is not this a fact which we have been witnessing since 1850? Who can venture to affirm that Californian gold has had no influence in stimulating the workings of silver in Mexico and Chili? Besides this, the extraction of gold is generally accompanied with a production of silver. Silver mines are not always auriferous, and the richest in gold contain but a small quantity of it, but gold mines are almost always argentiferous. The proportion of silver in a “nugget” of gold is about ⅛th in California, ¹⁄₁₀th in Siberia, and ⅕th in New South Wales. So that for every ¹⁷³four kilogrammes of gold in Australia, there is about one of silver. This is an important fact resulting from chemical analysis.

The production of silver is in the course of increase. Will that of gold be kept up? It is reasonable to entertain considerable doubt on this point. In Siberia we have seen it retrograde since 1847. The extraction appears stationary – perhaps rather on the decrease in California. Australia alone, with gold fields yet unexplored, appears likely to produce much more than heretofore. Auriferous strata may be discovered elsewhere, and add to the general stock. Combining these various circumstances, we incline to the opinion that the quantities now forming the annual production of gold will not be diminished for a certain number of years; but when the miners have exhausted the gatherings from the alluvial deposits, and it becomes necessary to seek the golden ore in the rocks and mountains, in which nature appears during the various revolutions and convulsions of the world, to have deposited it; then the working of the mines will depend upon the amount of capital and the degree of science, which may hereafter be brought to bear on that description of enterprize.

In a paper read in 1848, before the Royal Institution of London, Sir Roderick Murchison remarks that the principal deposits of gold are found in auriferous “detritus,” and that the same degree of success must not be expected to ensue from exploring the veins, which are ramified through the quartz rock. The result hitherto shown in California fully confirms this theory, as is shown in the following letter from an engineer at St. Francisco, dated 4th April last, after an expedition amongst the localities occupied by the gold diggers: —

“I send you the result of experiments made upon fragments of rock. In each we have operated upon three tons of quartz, reduced to powder, and carefully worked by amalgamation. We have made five experiments upon as many veins in the county of Bath, which is situated between l’Yuba and the River de la Plume. No. 1 has produced ¹⁷⁴3 dollars 53 cents per ton; No. 2, ¹⁷⁵9 dollars 50 cents; Nos. 3 and 4, ¹⁷⁶11 dollars each; and No. 5, ¹⁷⁷17 dollars.

“In the county of Nevada, experiments have been made on four different points. The first has given ¹⁷⁸15 dollars per ton; the second, scarcely any gold; the third, ¹⁷⁹14 dollars per ton – this mine, upon which a company had established works, has been abandoned; – and the fourth has given ¹⁸⁰59 dollars, the vein being of an extraordinary richness, and having yielded large returns to the proprietors.

“In the county of Eldorado, three different veins did not give a larger return than ¹⁸¹17 dollars per ton; a fourth equalled the richness of No. 4, in the adjoining county.

“In the county of Mariposa, out of eight experiments, three veins gave hardly ¹⁸²3 to 7 dollars per ton; three more gave ¹⁸³7 to 20 dollars; one gave ¹⁸⁴24 dollars; and one more, ¹⁸⁵38. The two last veins have attracted miners, who are going to work them. No enterprize requires a more careful and a more expensive examination than an auriferous quartz mine. A good vein, yielding ¹⁸⁶36 dollars per ton, may be considered, by moderate people, as worth working; sometimes they are found much richer; but out of all the quartz-crushing mills which have been set up in California, I do not think that one-third are used for mines which are yielding, for any continued period, ¹⁸⁷30 dollars the ton; so that one-half of the works of this nature are suspended.”

From the above account, it would appear that a vein of quartz, to be considered productive, should give 36 dollars, or ¹⁸⁸192 francs per ton. This return represents a weight of 55 grammes upon 1000 kilogrammes, or 5½ parts of gold out of 100,000 parts of quartz. Mineral of iron stone will give 10 to 15 of metal per 100; and the production by melting is infinitely less troublesome or expensive than the extraction of gold. In Australia, it was at first supposed, after an analysis of some ounces of quartz, taken from Mount Ophir, that the ton would yield more than £1100 sterling; but these experiments, made on so small a scale, are of little value. It is not likely that Australia, when the miners find themselves reduced to the necessity of working the quartz rocks, will show any considerable increase of yield over California.

The extraordinary abundance of gold, then, does not appear to be of permanent duration. It is a sudden outbreak which we, accordingly, have to meet. It does not appear to be, as far as we can now form any opinion, a reign of one metal, which is likely to take the place of some other; nevertheless, there will most infallibly be a very marked fall of gold in comparison with silver, unless met by a most extraordinary activity in working the silver mines; other causes, however, although secondary in themselves, appear, concurrently, likely to neutralize part of the effect of this superabundance.

It is of little importance to ascertain the amount of the annual production of the precious metals, unless we investigate the proportions in which they are distributed between the two hemispheres. Silver gives rise to a regular trade, and, coming from sources long open, it is sent almost exclusively to Europe, as an article of exchange, against the produce of her soil, or of her industry. Gold in California, on the contrary, a source of unexpected wealth, starting up in a new country, is first absorbed by the wants of a local circulation. A new society, formed in the midst of a desert country, necessarily requires some medium of exchange: some money. Next to the immediate necessities of California come the wants of the United States. These States have, for some years past, been endeavouring to introduce a greater amount of the precious metals into their monetary circulation. The gold of California has powerfully contributed to effect this object. Silver coin now circulates, but in small amounts, throughout the Union. They have coined gold pieces of 20, 10, 5, and even of one dollar. Out of ¹⁸⁹400,000,000 to 500,000,000 francs, brought in during the three first years, not more than ¹⁹⁰70,000,000 or 75,000,000 have found their way to Europe. The import of 1851 has been more sensibly felt. According to the returns of the American newspapers, the quantity of gold shipped to Europe from New York and New Orleans, was, during last year, ¹⁹¹200,000,000 francs.

The like result is obtained from other channels of information. The Mint of London, which ordinarily coins gold at the rate of about £2,000,000 sterling per annum; and which, in 1850, had not coined more than £1,492,000 sterling; in 1851, increased their operations to the extent of a coinage of £4,200,000 sterling (above 105,000,000 of francs). The moiety of this gold must have come from California. In the same year, the mint of Paris coined in gold ¹⁹²269,709,570 francs, of which about half was supplied by the conversion of 100,000,000 of Dutch Guillaumes into French money. In the accounts of the German Mints, we find about ¹⁹³200,000,000 of Californian gold. If we are to judge from the operations of our own mint, the import of 1852 will be smaller than that of 1851; for we have coined but 14,000,000 pieces in gold during the first three months of this year.

Australia sends regularly large amounts of her gold to England; but a part of the export of gold dust, or “nuggets,” is returned in gold coin. Many vessels have lately cleared from London with £200,000 sterling; and this at a time when England had barely received £800,000 sterling, from Sydney and Melbourne. Considerable amounts will likewise be imported in plate and jewellery. The more wealth increases in the colony, the more gold will be employed both for circulation and for luxuries. The producing country will be most certainly, par excellence, the country of consumption. Europe contains 200,000,000 inhabitants, of whom not one-half are adequately supplied with metallic money. It would require, certainly, an addition of many milliards of francs to the quantity of the present metallic circulation, to put many of these countries in an equally favourable position in this respect with France, Belgium, Switzerland, Holland, and Great Britain. We know, that only nations of industrious habits are in want of a larger supply of gold and silver because they alone carry on trade to any extent. Abundance of production precedes and gives rise to a demand for money. Wealth must exist in a country before the sign of that wealth is required; but, at the same time, it cannot be denied that the circulation of the precious metals stimulates, to a great degree, the creation of richness; it acts like roads, canals, or other modes of transport, which, by opening the means of reaching markets, extend the radius of operations, and give additional value to commodities. One half of Europe has a trade of inconsiderable importance, and derives but a small part of the benefit of the produce of its own soil. It has neither industry nor credit. In many countries now, gold and silver are replaced by the use of paper-money, often discredited in its own, and in all cases valueless out of its own country.

Austria has just made, partly in London, and partly in Frankfort, a loan of £3,500,000, intended principally to restore the credit of her paper money. This will be the first step towards the restoration of metallic money, which had disappeared to such an extent, that the smaller notes were often divided into four, to use for change. Prussia, Poland, Russia, and Turkey, have experienced, in different degrees, the like embarrassment. Before these various markets are all superabundantly supplied with gold and silver, the treasures of Siberia, Australia, and the two Americas, may be diffused for many years over the continent of Europe.

The scarcity of gold had restricted its use; in France, for example, the smallest gold coin was ¹⁹⁴20 francs. Since it has become more common, the Mint have coined pieces of ¹⁹⁵10 francs, which are much liked, and are convenient for use. These smaller coins appear likely to take the place of a portion of our silver, which is needlessly cumbersome. It is supposed that the use of Bank-notes of ¹⁹⁶200 and 100 francs has economised the use of several hundreds of millions of the precious metals. The 10-franc pieces, when more generally used in circulation, will take the place of, and drive out a portion of silver coin. The demand for silver then will diminish, whilst that for gold is increasing. Silver will be used as change for gold – as gold is for bank-notes. This is the case to such an extent in England, where the silver circulation is small, that the Mint in London, which coined £1,492,000 sterling in gold, in 1850, only coined £130,000 sterling in silver in the same year, whilst, in the same year, ¹⁹⁷86,000,000 francs in silver were coined at the Mint in Paris. It must not be forgotten that the use of the precious metals is not confined to the limits of Christian civilization. The Chinese import Peruvian and Mexican dollars in exchange for their silks and teas; they attract by their trade the gold produced in the neighbouring Islands, and in the Straits of Sunda. This industrious nation has sent its contingent of labourers and traders both to California and Australia. A portion of Californian gold has already gone to China, but Australia appears better situated for the purpose of supplying the eastern regions and the southern portions of Asia with the precious metals. The Australian gold, however, sent there will be as so much lost treasure; for whilst the precious metals which are thrown into circulation in Europe continue in use as coin for a long time, that which is sent to China, or India, or Africa, altogether disappears; it is not required for circulation, but seems to be consumed.