Мы живем в мире гораздо более турбулентном, чем нам хотелось бы думать, но наука, которую мы применяем для анализа экономических, финансовых и статистических процессов или явлений, по большей части игнорирует важную хаотическую составляющую природы мироздания. Нам нужно привыкнуть к мысли, что чрезвычайно маловероятные события – тоже часть естественного порядка вещей. Выдающийся венгерский математик и психолог Ласло Мерё объясняет, как сосуществуют два мира, «дикий» и «тихий» (которые он называет Диконией и Тихонией), и показывает, что в них действуют разные законы. Он утверждает, что, хотя Вселенная, в которой мы живем, по сути своей дика, нам выгоднее считать, что она подчиняется законам Тихонии. Это представление может стать самоисполняющимся пророчеством и создать посреди чрезвычайно бурного моря островок предсказуемости. Делая обзор с зыбких границ между экономикой и теорией сложности, Мерё предлагает распространить область применения точных наук на то, что до этого считалось не поддающимся научному анализу: те непредсказуемые, неповторимые, в высшей степени маловероятные явления, которые мы обычно называем чудесами.

Если вы примете приглашение Ласло Мерё, вы попадете в мир, в котором чудеса – это норма, а предсказуемое живет бок о бок с непредсказуемым. Попутно он раскрывает секреты математики фондовых рынков и объясняет живо, но математически точно причины биржевых крахов и землетрясений, а также рассказывает, почему в «черных лебедях» следует видеть не только бедствия, но и возможности. (Альберт-Ласло Барабаши, физик, мировой эксперт по теории сетей)

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Мне показались любопытными мысли об исследовании уникальных событий, по которым стандартного отклонения нет. Для тех, кто читал книги Талеба, может быть любопытно, как бы взгляд отчасти на то же самое, но спокойнее.

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Хорошая книга дающая много ниточек – завязок по разным темаматикам. Потянув за которые можно раскрыть темы затронутые в этой книге. Прочитать несомненно стоит.

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Начну с того, что ни логики, ни особых чудес в обычном их понимании в книге нет. А вот осмысление \"событий редких, очень редких и редких до невозможности\" действительно присутствует. Никогда не задумывалась, но внятной всеобъемлющей формулировки чуда просто не существует. И дело здесь не в сложности определения, а в многообразии явления.

Бывают чудеса великие, бывают малые, но их объединит одно: они чудесны.

Чтобы не запутывать читателя, автор не стал углубляться в дебри терминологии, указав лишь важнейшие свойства чудес,\nчто необходимо для понимания книги:

чудо случается лишь раз, его не предсказать и его не воспроизвести.

Исходя из этого, чудеса могут быть грандиозными и малозначительными, могут переворачивать весь мир и удивлять лишь одного человека, могут нести радость, а могут беду. К ним невозможно подготовиться, но их можно и даже нужно иметь ввиду. А ещё автор показывает, как их можно использовать. Формулам, расчетам и теориям посвящена значительная часть книги. Это, с одной стороны, наглядно показывает закономерности и хоть как-то примиряет с непредсказуемостью мира, но с другой стороны утомляет. Не обнаружив прямых советов и рекомендаций я немного заскучала, но вовремя подоспели чудеса:

Если вы не относитесь к числу страстных любителей высшей математики, вам будет приятно узнать, что в оставшейся части этой книги я больше не буду ее использовать.

Ура!\nДоказав, что чудеса не предсказуемы, но закономерны, автор переходит к самому интересному. Рецептов обогащения и объяснения фокусов он, к сожалению, не даёт, но его выводы существенно расширяют обыденное мировоззрение. Да, мир \"дик и хрупок\", но другого у нас нет, поэтому надо так приспособиться, чтобы без значительных эмоциональных и финансовых потерь выбираться из любой ситуации.\nСоветы и способы прилагаются.

Интересно, занятно и позитивно.\nМногое можно ввести в обиход уже сейчас, не дожидаясь волшебных или негативных чудес.\nМного чего можно взять на заметку.\nОднозначно рекомендую всем, кто уважает креативность и верит в удачу.

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